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    2022年最大的風險和機會在哪

    2022年最大的風險和機會在哪

     MATTHEW HEIMER 2021年12月14日
    五位明星投資人的最佳選股策略。

    在疫情最嚴重的時候,很多人擔心的都是一個“少”的問題——如果被疫情沖擊得千創百孔的經濟讓我們的錢變少了怎么辦?而在這次《財富》舉辦的年度投資者圓桌會議上,由于美國經濟近來復蘇速度喜人,在談到明年經濟形勢的時候,很多人已經開始擔心“多”的問題了。

    人們對消費品的需求太多了,以至于造成了供應鏈的混亂,加劇了通脹;太多熱錢集中在硅谷和華爾街,以至于很多初創公司和股票都有估值過高之嫌。從更高的層面看,大氣層里的二氧化碳也太多了,迫使企業的CEO、投資者和消費者都必須在可持續發展問題上做出艱難的選擇。面對這種局面,與會的每一位專家也都在尋找那些擁有合適的技術和商業模式的公司,希望它們能在如今這個快速變化的世界中勝出。

    參加今年圓桌會議的嘉賓有:Fred Alger Management公司CEO、首席投資官兼投資組合經理宗丹(Dan Chung),風投機構Graham & Walker創始人兼董事總經理萊斯利·費恩扎格(Leslie Feinzaig),T. Rowe Price公司證券與多元資產首席投資官、新書《資本配置:為股東創造長期價值的原則、戰略與過程》的作者大衛·吉洛斯(David Giroux),Parnassus Investments公司研究與投資總監洛莉·基思(Lori Keith),以及高盛資產管理公司基本面證券業務負責人凱蒂·科赫(Katie Koch)。以下是他們在圓桌會議上的發言(有刪節)。

    《財富》:今年是經濟強勢復蘇的一年,但是現在我們又看到了一些新的困難,比如通脹、勞工問題、供應鏈問題,以及政府刺激計劃到期等等。你們是否認為2022年的股市總體會降溫?

    凱蒂·科赫:宏觀上看,我們認為2022年是更強調經濟韌性的一年,明年的回報率可能會有所降低。在此背景下,我們在投資上必須具有高度的選擇性。說到經濟韌性,我們投資的領域主要包括穩定供應鏈——今年我們所有人都發現了穩定供應鏈的重要性;此外還有企業數字化領域,最后則是促進全球向可持續發展方向轉型。

    在疫情早期,數字化的好處似乎主要被大型科技公司享受了。是否也有些業務流向了不太知名的中小企業?

    宗丹:從某種程度上來講,新技術的大規模應用,是很多人不得不進行的一項試驗。但我認為,這場試驗大體上是相當成功的——包括在一些十分傳統的行業。比如疫情期間,餐飲業受到的沖擊僅次于航空業,但很多餐飲企業都開啟了線上下單和外賣服務,而且成績相當亮眼?,F在即便城市已經開放了,他們的外賣業務也比以前紅火很多,甚至要高于疫情前的水平。

    插圖:Selman Ho?g?r

    萊斯利·費恩扎格:正所謂“福兮禍之所倚”,危與機往往是并存的。疫情給我們的工作和生活方式帶來了很大干擾,很多人的行為尚未適應“新常態”。在疫情以前,很多風投對教育行業都是非常謹慎的。但是疫情一來,我們才意識到,教育還有這么多種方式,因此這個行業的投資也達到了創紀錄的水平。我個人也在教育領域投資了一兩家公司,其中之一是早教公司LegUp,另一個是旨在通過社區學院在美國中部地區提供學歷和技能提升項目的Stack Education。

    在醫療服務領域也有很多創新模式?,F在保險也覆蓋了很多遠程醫療項目,并被更多人接受?,F在你只需要簡單地預約,就可以輕松享受遠程醫療服務。疫情期間,這種個人醫療領域的創新也為風投創造了前所未有的機會。要不是這幾年我們的生活遭遇了這么重大的干擾,可能也就根本不會有這么大的創新動力。

    科赫:這種顛覆不僅發生在風投界,也影響到了公開市場。據我們估計,明年包括以后,科技界的一些“大贏家”,很有可能將不再是那些在美國上市的主流平臺。

    想想20年前全球市值最高的十家大公司,活到現在還仍然榜上有名的就只有一個,那就是微軟。其他9家公司已經累計損失了2350億美元市值。這就充分說明了尋找下一代企業的重要性。

    我們認為,明年企業界的科技支出可能會增長4%,這將是10年來的最高預期增長率。網絡安全是我們關注的領域之一,因為現在越來越多的人將工作放到了云端進行。Palo Alto Networks是一家在這方面走在前沿的公司。HubSpot是軟件方面我們比較青睞的一家公司,它主要是在幫助美國的中小企業實現數字化。

    在應對氣候變化上,包括在如何讓企業實現綠色運營上,也有很多技術層面的機會。

    洛莉·基思:對。我想重點談一家叫Roper Technologies的公司,它能幫企業減少用水量。他們是一家多元技術公司,主要為各個小眾市場開發軟件工程產品。同時他們也提供了一款非常具有創新性的水泵,可以顯著減少用水量,同時還能監測水質。

    另一家公司Guidewire Software也符合這個主題,只不過可能不那么明顯。當然它也順應了數字化的趨勢。氣候變化帶來的各種物理風險會顯著影響財產保險的成本,而Guidewire公司的軟件和數據分析技術則可以幫助客戶管理這些風險,處理好這些至關重要的氣候變化問題。

    大衛·吉洛斯:未來20年,沒有任何一個行業在減排問題上的重要性可以與電力行業相提并論。目前電力行業的做法基本是在用風能、太陽能取代煤炭和天然氣發電。但問題是,煤炭、天然氣包括核能的發電載荷都是可預測的,而風能和太陽能的發電載荷卻有很多變數。為了讓清潔能源經濟真的運轉起來,我們認為到2040年前,美國至少要在新的輸電項目上投資4000億美元。

    其中相當一部分項目會集中在中西部,因為那里風力資源最強,不存在像東西海岸那樣的選址問題。因此,未來20年,中西部的電力公司在輸電項目上是大有可為的。Ameren、Exelon、AEP和Xcel等公司可能都會是比較大的受益者。而且中西部也更不容易受到極端惡劣天氣的影響。

    今年,極端天氣事件也給供應鏈造成了問題。哪些行業應對這個問題做得最好?

    基思:圍繞供應鏈其實有兩個問題:一是實際的供應鏈問題,二是勞動力短缺的問題。我們發現,有些企業愿意對員工隊伍從安全、多元化、健康和福利等方面進行投資,所以他們不光克服了勞動力短缺的問題,還實現了健康增長。比如芝加哥期權交易所是全球最大的證券交易所之一,它的員工自愿離職率只有5%左右,是同類企業中最低的。它提供了很多內部項目,比如領導力發展項目、員工健康項目和一些女性倡議等等,還有一支50多人的多元化團隊,這些做法讓員工產生了很高的參與度,從而將離職率降到了最低,這使他們能以更快的速度實現增長。

    另一家我認為很有優勢的公司是Trumbull。 他們主要研究用于建筑業和農業運輸的云軟件解決方案。在運輸行業,卡車司機短缺是運輸公司面臨的頭號問題。Trumbull的做法是通過動態調度,整合實時環境數據和交通數據,提供優化路線,以減少司機在工作中遇到的阻力,提供直至“最后一公里”的服務。

    專家選美股

    Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $530)

    HubSpot (HUBS, $822)

    Roper Technologies (ROP, $498)

    Guidewire Software (GWRE, $123)

    Ameren (AEE, $85)

    Exelon (EXC, $54)

    American Electric Power Company (AEP, $83)

    Xcel Energy (XEL, $65)

    Cboe Global Markets (CBOE, $129)

    PayPal (PYPL, $194)

    Square (SQ, $225)

    價值截止至2021年11月19日。股票名稱按提及順序排列。

    在勞動力短缺方面,美國已經出現了所謂的“大離職”浪潮,幾乎所有勞動者都有一種身心被掏空的感覺。創業界一向是以“雞血”、“996”和“007”聞名的。我想知道,你們是否發現有公司已經在著手解決這個問題了?

    費恩扎格:我們當然希望如此?,F在我發現很多公司都在努力解決“留人”的問題,從建立輔導平臺、提供健康服務到培訓和發展,再到構建企業文化和吸引員工參與。至于他們是否會成功,我還不知道。

    大約10到15年前的時候,每個人都想在那種公共區域提供啤酒的初創公司里工作。不過現在,我認為人們都想找一家真正把他們當人看、能夠提供360度全方位支持的公司?,F在已經有很多公司在開展心理健康日活動了。要想爭奪人才,光靠給的工資多是不行的?,F在人們關心的是,我的人生只有一次,我應該在哪里度過我寶貴的人生,同時還能保持一些完整的自我?

    你可能會說,這種心態的強化也與一些面向消費者的公司的創新有關,它們消除了交易中的阻力。

    宗丹:以互聯網、云計算和移動計算為代表的這波技術紅利已經持續20年了。很多人都在說:“下一個大機會是什么?”有時它恰恰是那些原本在采用新技術上很滯后的行業。金融業和金融服務業絕對就是這種行業之一。比如說,現在的大銀行仍然有大量的實體分支機構,這簡直令人難以置信。不過在疫情期間,我們終于看到金融領域的各種移動APP被消費者大量采用,比如Cash App、PayPal和Square等等,另外在金融服務業也有很多其他的移動應用。除此之外,企業在財務管理上,比如在票據支付、采購與會計和合同管理等方面,也開始大量應用這些金融APP。

    不過奇怪的是,很多這些東西在美國以外更先進。比如在中國,中國企業對微信和支付寶的應用要遠遠領先于美國企業。

    科赫:現在這個時刻,很有意思的是,我們有了很多顛覆性的技術,而且疫情還加快了這一進程。不過這種創新大多發生在零售領域。所以現在我們現在可以在網上一鍵下單,第二天快遞就能送到家門口,簡直超級方便,所有人都喜歡這一點。不過這些大的行業也容易受到更多監管,所以它們在很多方面都是更難被顛覆的。

    目前,全球互聯網公司的市值總額大約是14萬億美元,全球 金融服務公司的市值總額大約是16萬億美元,所以我認為機會是巨大的。 2021年,我們將開始看到一些即將被顛覆的公司已經受到了非常嚴重的影響。一些傳統支付公司的收益極不理想,原因就是受到了一些宗丹剛剛提到的APP的影響,比如Toast、Square和Shopify等等。它們提供的服務與傳統支付公司非常類似,但從很多方面看都要更好,而且他們的端對端服務的成本更低。

    世界上已經有其他國家在這方面走得比美國更遠了。對此我有兩點感悟:首先,美國的支付生態會變得更像中國,未來能把電商、社交和支付整合在一起的APP將會勝出。

    其次,事實證明,要想在這些市場取得成功,你需要有大量的當地知識。以巴西為例,巴西已經開始建立自己的支付生態系統了。 PagSeguro就是一個為小微商戶提供支付服務的公司。有些時候,新興市場國家之所以能在這些方面走在前列,是因為他們沒有傳統的基礎設施作為歷史包袱。不過我們也意識到,美國也會產生很多本土贏家。不過這個領域的全球大贏家未必還會是美國的“五巨頭”。

    新興市場是很多美國投資者嚴重忽視的地方。

    科赫:你說的對。大多數美國投資者對新興市場配置不足。新興市場約占全球證據市場的10%到15%,但美國投資者對新興市場的配資往往只有一兩個百分點,很多壓根沒有新興市場投資。但新興市場也有一些很好的公司和增長機會。

    通脹對你的看法有何改變?

    吉洛斯:2021年真是一場“完美風暴”。即便是在正常經濟復蘇的年份,通脹一般也會高于正常水平。但今年美國出臺了巨額的經濟刺激計劃,而且人們也在積極消費,市場對耐用消費品的需求比趨勢線高出了20%以上,我們以前從未在數據中看到這樣的情況。不管是電器、運動器材、空調,還是電腦和ipad,它們的需求都遠遠超出了正常水平。而現有的供應鏈不足支持需求在一夜之間暴漲20%。

    由供應鏈問題導致的通脹可能要持續到2023年,此外還有一些結構性因素也導致了美國的通脹高于疫情前5年的水平。首先是市場對大學以下學歷工人的需求正在上升,所以他們有了比以往更多的選擇——比如在亞馬遜送快遞,或者干一些靈活的零工。從人口上看,這一部分人口并未增加。所以從本質上看,我們需要讓工資在一段時間里快速上漲,以刺激那些目前沒有就業的人去就業。我們可能不會永遠保持4.5%的通脹率,但我認為在未來三到五年,你都會看到美國的通脹率要會比疫情前略高。

    這對投資者的策略有何影響?

    吉洛斯:我認為有一個資產類別很有吸引力,那就是杠桿貸款?,F在它在我的投資組合里占了10%左右,而一兩年前它大概只占1%。它們屬于浮動利率貸款,所以如果利率上漲,你就賺了。如果利率是穩定的,你也能拿到4%的回報。即便是利率下跌,你的損失也不會太大,況且目前并我不認為有大幅降息的可能。由于國債目前價位很高,所以投資級債券并不很具有吸引力。而杠桿貸款由于其波動性僅有證券市場的三分之一,所以它對那些風險意識很強且不喜歡高風險的投資者是很有意義的。

    我認為現在所有人都有一個共識,那就是隨著疫情日趨平穩,經濟將逐步走向正?;绕涫菑南M者的個人體驗來看。你在這方面看到了哪些機會?

    宗丹:我認為接下來一兩年,小盤股的表現應該會相當不錯。因為這些小盤股公司一般都是深耕國內的公司,比如餐飲、酒店、消費品零售和娛樂企業等等。他們一般會有更多的固定成本,并且需要更多的體力勞動者。但隨著經濟的復蘇和增長,一些受疫情影響最嚴重的行業將會有很積極的發展。

    近幾十年,比起物質需求,很多消費者更加重視的是“體驗”——比如旅行、聽音樂會等等。Live Nation就是一家我們非常喜歡的公司,它是全美最大的音樂會和現場演出推廣公司。它的業務是數字化無法取代的,就連亞馬遜也沒法跟它搶生意。如果你想見你最喜歡的音樂人,最好的方法當然是去看他現場演出。而且人們也喜歡看現場演出。另外,“千禧一代”已經成了目前的消費主力,他們是尤其注重體驗的一代,他們對工作、房子、車子、孩子并不那么看重,但卻很重視旅行、體驗、音樂會這些東西。

    我比較感興趣的另一個新興的、非物質的增長領域是元宇宙。我們發現,這一代年輕人是很相信元宇宙的,就像他們也能最早接受移動化和社交媒體一樣。我并不認為元宇宙會完全取代真實世界,但它會給很多年輕的“千禧一代”的生活提供某種補充。

    科赫:我想補充兩點。首先,全球有85%的千禧一代人生活在新興市場國家。所以這些生活體驗、旅行和戶外活動方面的趨勢應該是全球化的。其次,現在很多“千禧一代”和“Z世代”的年輕人都會把他們的生活體驗拍成照片,然后發布在社交媒體上,這樣就實現了體驗的物化——我本人是1980年出生的,所以我算“千禧一代”里的老年人,這些都是我的團隊告訴我的。也就是說,現在的年輕人不在網上“秀”奢侈品了,但他們可以“秀”生活體驗。我想強調的是好的戶外公司也有投資價值,特別是小盤股,不管是Yeti公司,還是一些做游泳池、房車或者游艇的公司——現在美國年輕人擁有的游艇比中老年人還多。

    專家選美股

    Toast (TOST, $45)

    Shopify (SHOP, $1,691)

    PagSeguro Digital (PAGS, $30)

    Live Nation (LYV, $113)

    Yeti Holdings (YETI, $103)

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, $155)

    Nvidia (NVDA, $330)

    Angi (ANGI, $10)

    Roblox (RBLX, $135)

    Silergy (6415.TW, $5,250)

    MKS Instruments (MKSI, $163)

    Prices as of 11/19/21

    股價截止至2021年11月19日

    宗丹:我們發現,很多消費品牌接受元宇宙的速度很快,他們已經開始在元宇宙里舉辦活動了。他們采用了游戲化的手段,營造了可視化的體驗,如果你采用Oculus這樣的VR頭盔,視覺效果顯然會更好。很多企業都押寶在這種3D化的、更有體驗感的環境。比如Gucci打造了一款虛擬手袋——它是虛擬的,不是真的手袋,但居然也能賣出好幾千美元。再比如非同質化代幣(NFT)。湯姆·布拉迪(著名橄欖球星)就推出了自己的NFT平臺,它本質上就是一張數字化的橄欖球卡片,跟以前的交易卡差不多。有些人跟我說,能想出這種概念的人肯定是瘋了。但我認為,幾千年前的某一天,有個人走到市場上,他不是用牛羊來換雞和玉米,而是拿出來了一種叫錢幣的東西。但是其他小販可能會以看傻子的眼神看著他說:“我不想要這個鐵片,把我的雞還給我?!?/p>

    當然,在我們這個時代,新事物達到50%普及率的時間已經大大縮短。以前,美國用了66年才讓50%的美國人用上電話,而電視卻只用了四分之一的時間就達到了50%的普及率。臉書的普及率更是不到4年就達到了50%。新技術的快速應用是我們這個時代的特點之一,也是所有投資者都應該關注的一個現象。在元宇宙領域,我目前還沒有特別推薦的投資對象,但我認有一些公司是值得關注的,比如Roblox和Unity。當然,現在已經更名為Meta的臉書也很值得關注。另外我們認為,一些傳統公司也很可能從元宇宙中獲益。比方說,元宇宙所需的計算力是驚人的,所以就需要像AMD和英偉達這樣的半導體公司來驅動它。

    基思:關于千禧一代,我再補充一點,從年齡上看,千禧一代馬上即將進入收入高峰期,他們最大的一筆開銷就是房子——不管是買房、還房貸還是翻修房子。這樣的話,像Angi這樣的公司就會從中受益。Angi是一家主流的線上房屋服務平臺,它瞄準的是一個9000億美元的目標市場。千禧一代跟我們不一樣,他們更喜歡在網上找服務承包商,而我們這一代人則喜歡通過黃頁或者其他途徑。

    費恩扎格:我并沒有花太多時間思考過千禧一代的問題,我主要關注的是人口的兩個邊緣,首先是“嬰兒潮”一代的老年人,以及相關的“養老經濟”及技術。但更重要的是“Z世代”的年輕人,他們是第一代的“數字原住民”,他們對生活的態度和我們完全不同,敢于質疑一切,而且他們彼此之間的關系也跟我們這一代有很大的不同。我在虛擬幣和元宇宙這兩種前沿技術上投資的不多,但我的確認為它們是一種趨勢。目前,它們看起來有賭博和投機的意味——如果你沒有做好賠錢的準備,就不要打算投資這一類的東西。但它還是很值得了解的。

    我投資的一家公司就在這個領域里做了一些很有趣的事,這家公司叫Makara。 Makara所做的事就是創建一個投資籃子。本質上它們是由虛擬幣構成的ETF基金,散戶投資者可以買入這些基金進行投資。投資籃子里的資產被它以一種我們這些上了年紀的千禧一代人和X世代人可以理解的方式包裝了起來,這樣一來,我們就不用擔心油價,不用管OpenSea(一個虛擬幣交易平臺)是干什么的,也不用管為什么我們要買那些奇奇怪怪的動物幣。

    科赫:在這個行業里,我們經常會談論多元化的問題——這是一個非常重要的問題。我們的團隊有一半的投資是由女性經理管理的,這是一件很值得驕傲的事。我們經常會談到性別和種族的問題,但除此之外,你自己投資團隊也要做到人才的多元化。否則你甚至都不知道為什么有人會在元宇宙里買一些莫名其妙的東西,這時候你就需要年輕人幫你理解這些。

    新聞界有一條顛撲不破的真理:你的孩子在討論什么事,你就應該關注什么事。我認為這一點對投資者也是一樣的。

    我想讓大家回答最后一個問題:你們認為明年最大的風險和機遇在哪里?

    吉洛斯:2019年,標普500的每股收益是164美元,今年有望達到205甚至207美元,已經遠高于平均趨勢。以中值計算,大盤股的估值也已接近25年來的最高點,所以收益增長即將放緩。通常來說,這對市場并不是一個好信號。如果總體增長環境放緩了,那么那些一向穩定增長的公司就會重新受到青睞。

    基思:我們認為2022年最大的風險是勞動力短缺,這給企業創新和增長帶來了更大的挑戰。2020年4月份以來,美國的非農就業人口已經增長了1700萬人,但仍然比疫情前低了500萬人。因此,企業要想吸引和保留人才,就要提供一個安全、包容的環境。那些擁有強烈的宗旨使命感的企業將在吸引人才上具備很強的競爭優勢。

    宗丹:我認為最大的機遇還是在創新型、增長型的公司身上。我們還處在一個疫情加劇、加速的時期,而這也加快了一些行業和企業的衰退速度。所以機會就會集中在這些引領趨勢的公司身上。

    在風險方面,我最擔心的就是通脹。在很長一段時間里,美國經濟增長的主要受益者是白領工人,而不是藍領工人?,F在我們看到,藍領工人的待遇有所上升。我認為這對社會是有好處的,藍領工人的高工資對現實生活是十分必要的,但時間一長就容易轉化成更高的通脹。

    其次是商品通脹。 現在的油價為83美元。金融危機以來,我們還沒有見過83美元的油價,造成這種現象的主要原因是中國的崛起?,F在有一個有趣的現象,我本人是一個環保主義者,我歡迎能源行業向風能、太陽能等可再生能源轉型。但由于油氣行業資本支出的減少,再考慮到可再生能源的未來前景,接下來幾年,油氣價格可能會一直保持在高位。如果你想讓市場倒逼轉型,這或許是最好的方法,但中間也會有一段很不愉快的過渡時期。

    科赫:我們擔心的是供應鏈的問題會持續到2022年,特別是芯片短缺的問題?,F在芯片從訂購到交貨需要長達22周的時間,這是非常滯后的。芯片短缺是一個非常重要的問題,因為我們今天談到的很多東西都需要技術上的創新,而芯片是所有這些技術的基礎。

    這就引出了我的第二點,那就是我們認為2022年的一個重大機遇在于構建供應鏈的彈性。我們喜歡那些在這方面考慮得比較周全的公司。目前來看,中國和美國都會在本土市場上對芯片設計和制造進行大規模的投資,所以我們很看好半導體設備制造商,比如亞洲的硅力杰、美國的MKS Instruments等。

    萊斯利,你對風險和機遇有何看法?

    費恩扎格:作為做風投的人,我一般不以一年而非幾十年為單位來考慮機遇和風險。不過我認為很多風險同時也是機遇,就像一枚硬幣的兩面。我想說的一點是,現在越來越多的錢進入了創業領域,因為創業從沒有像現在這么容易過。很多投資人發現,風投和初創的成果來得越來越大、越來越快。這當然是一個機遇。

    至于挑戰,初創公司并不是一個你可以非常高效地投入大量資本的地方。有時候情況甚至恰恰相反,你向初創公司投得錢越多,他們越學不會如何建立實際業務,以及如何在成長過程中有效利用資金,這最終對這些公司是不利的。

    更大的機遇在于讓更多人去工作,去參與到投資和創造財富的巨大浪潮中來。在疫情以前,世界經濟論壇曾指出,女性可能還需要160年的時間才能在經濟上與男性平等。而疫情爆發以后,這個時間變成了300年左右。很多女性不再工作了,她們沒有參與到經濟中來,她們也沒有進行投資,這種現象是全球性的。即便在我們這個行業,全世界只有不到1%的資產是由女性管理的。

    我將以積極的觀點結束發言——另一方面,現在創富、創業的周期大大加快,人們參與經濟和創造財富的方式大大增加,這在以前是根本無法做到的。有些新模式為投資經濟帶來了新人、新思維和新資本,我很樂見這一切所帶來的機會。

    這是很好的結束語。感謝你們的時間、觀點和專業知識。

    三個興奮點和三個擔憂點

    三個興奮點

    小盤股

    平均要比標普500的大公司股便宜得多,隨著消費的復蘇,很多小盤股公司將獲益,其中不乏一些快速增長的技術創新者。

    金融科技,永遠的神

    像Toast、Square和PayPal這樣的公司仍處于金融服務改革的早期階段。

    福利更好的公司

    初創公司和上市公司更加關注員工的福祉——這樣可以降低人才流失率,從而更好地回報股東。

    三個擔憂點

    通脹

    供應鏈問題應該很快就會緩解,但勞動力短缺問題可能不會很快得到解決,這將引起工資通脹。(好的一面是,這有利于解決收入差距的問題。)

    芯片短缺

    芯片訂貨時間過長,達到創紀錄的水平,可能會減緩很多企業的升級和創新速度。

    綠色之痛

    化石能源向可再生能源的轉型具有極大的經濟意義,但會提高企業和消費者的短期成本。(財富中文網)

    本文另一版本刊發在2021年12月/ 2022年1月刊的《財富》雜志上,題為《投資者圓桌會議:精明投資走出危機模式》。

    譯者:樸成奎

    在疫情最嚴重的時候,很多人擔心的都是一個“少”的問題——如果被疫情沖擊得千創百孔的經濟讓我們的錢變少了怎么辦?而在這次《財富》舉辦的年度投資者圓桌會議上,由于美國經濟近來復蘇速度喜人,在談到明年經濟形勢的時候,很多人已經開始擔心“多”的問題了。

    人們對消費品的需求太多了,以至于造成了供應鏈的混亂,加劇了通脹;太多熱錢集中在硅谷和華爾街,以至于很多初創公司和股票都有估值過高之嫌。從更高的層面看,大氣層里的二氧化碳也太多了,迫使企業的CEO、投資者和消費者都必須在可持續發展問題上做出艱難的選擇。面對這種局面,與會的每一位專家也都在尋找那些擁有合適的技術和商業模式的公司,希望它們能在如今這個快速變化的世界中勝出。

    參加今年圓桌會議的嘉賓有:Fred Alger Management公司CEO、首席投資官兼投資組合經理宗丹(Dan Chung),風投機構Graham & Walker創始人兼董事總經理萊斯利·費恩扎格(Leslie Feinzaig),T. Rowe Price公司證券與多元資產首席投資官、新書《資本配置:為股東創造長期價值的原則、戰略與過程》的作者大衛·吉洛斯(David Giroux),Parnassus Investments公司研究與投資總監洛莉·基思(Lori Keith),以及高盛資產管理公司基本面證券業務負責人凱蒂·科赫(Katie Koch)。以下是他們在圓桌會議上的發言(有刪節)。

    《財富》:今年是經濟強勢復蘇的一年,但是現在我們又看到了一些新的困難,比如通脹、勞工問題、供應鏈問題,以及政府刺激計劃到期等等。你們是否認為2022年的股市總體會降溫?

    凱蒂·科赫:宏觀上看,我們認為2022年是更強調經濟韌性的一年,明年的回報率可能會有所降低。在此背景下,我們在投資上必須具有高度的選擇性。說到經濟韌性,我們投資的領域主要包括穩定供應鏈——今年我們所有人都發現了穩定供應鏈的重要性;此外還有企業數字化領域,最后則是促進全球向可持續發展方向轉型。

    在疫情早期,數字化的好處似乎主要被大型科技公司享受了。是否也有些業務流向了不太知名的中小企業?

    宗丹:從某種程度上來講,新技術的大規模應用,是很多人不得不進行的一項試驗。但我認為,這場試驗大體上是相當成功的——包括在一些十分傳統的行業。比如疫情期間,餐飲業受到的沖擊僅次于航空業,但很多餐飲企業都開啟了線上下單和外賣服務,而且成績相當亮眼?,F在即便城市已經開放了,他們的外賣業務也比以前紅火很多,甚至要高于疫情前的水平。

    萊斯利·費恩扎格:正所謂“福兮禍之所倚”,危與機往往是并存的。疫情給我們的工作和生活方式帶來了很大干擾,很多人的行為尚未適應“新常態”。在疫情以前,很多風投對教育行業都是非常謹慎的。但是疫情一來,我們才意識到,教育還有這么多種方式,因此這個行業的投資也達到了創紀錄的水平。我個人也在教育領域投資了一兩家公司,其中之一是早教公司LegUp,另一個是旨在通過社區學院在美國中部地區提供學歷和技能提升項目的Stack Education。

    在醫療服務領域也有很多創新模式?,F在保險也覆蓋了很多遠程醫療項目,并被更多人接受?,F在你只需要簡單地預約,就可以輕松享受遠程醫療服務。疫情期間,這種個人醫療領域的創新也為風投創造了前所未有的機會。要不是這幾年我們的生活遭遇了這么重大的干擾,可能也就根本不會有這么大的創新動力。

    科赫:這種顛覆不僅發生在風投界,也影響到了公開市場。據我們估計,明年包括以后,科技界的一些“大贏家”,很有可能將不再是那些在美國上市的主流平臺。

    想想20年前全球市值最高的十家大公司,活到現在還仍然榜上有名的就只有一個,那就是微軟。其他9家公司已經累計損失了2350億美元市值。這就充分說明了尋找下一代企業的重要性。

    我們認為,明年企業界的科技支出可能會增長4%,這將是10年來的最高預期增長率。網絡安全是我們關注的領域之一,因為現在越來越多的人將工作放到了云端進行。Palo Alto Networks是一家在這方面走在前沿的公司。HubSpot是軟件方面我們比較青睞的一家公司,它主要是在幫助美國的中小企業實現數字化。

    在應對氣候變化上,包括在如何讓企業實現綠色運營上,也有很多技術層面的機會。

    洛莉·基思:對。我想重點談一家叫Roper Technologies的公司,它能幫企業減少用水量。他們是一家多元技術公司,主要為各個小眾市場開發軟件工程產品。同時他們也提供了一款非常具有創新性的水泵,可以顯著減少用水量,同時還能監測水質。

    另一家公司Guidewire Software也符合這個主題,只不過可能不那么明顯。當然它也順應了數字化的趨勢。氣候變化帶來的各種物理風險會顯著影響財產保險的成本,而Guidewire公司的軟件和數據分析技術則可以幫助客戶管理這些風險,處理好這些至關重要的氣候變化問題。

    大衛·吉洛斯:未來20年,沒有任何一個行業在減排問題上的重要性可以與電力行業相提并論。目前電力行業的做法基本是在用風能、太陽能取代煤炭和天然氣發電。但問題是,煤炭、天然氣包括核能的發電載荷都是可預測的,而風能和太陽能的發電載荷卻有很多變數。為了讓清潔能源經濟真的運轉起來,我們認為到2040年前,美國至少要在新的輸電項目上投資4000億美元。

    其中相當一部分項目會集中在中西部,因為那里風力資源最強,不存在像東西海岸那樣的選址問題。因此,未來20年,中西部的電力公司在輸電項目上是大有可為的。Ameren、Exelon、AEP和Xcel等公司可能都會是比較大的受益者。而且中西部也更不容易受到極端惡劣天氣的影響。

    今年,極端天氣事件也給供應鏈造成了問題。哪些行業應對這個問題做得最好?

    基思:圍繞供應鏈其實有兩個問題:一是實際的供應鏈問題,二是勞動力短缺的問題。我們發現,有些企業愿意對員工隊伍從安全、多元化、健康和福利等方面進行投資,所以他們不光克服了勞動力短缺的問題,還實現了健康增長。比如芝加哥期權交易所是全球最大的證券交易所之一,它的員工自愿離職率只有5%左右,是同類企業中最低的。它提供了很多內部項目,比如領導力發展項目、員工健康項目和一些女性倡議等等,還有一支50多人的多元化團隊,這些做法讓員工產生了很高的參與度,從而將離職率降到了最低,這使他們能以更快的速度實現增長。

    另一家我認為很有優勢的公司是Trumbull。 他們主要研究用于建筑業和農業運輸的云軟件解決方案。在運輸行業,卡車司機短缺是運輸公司面臨的頭號問題。Trumbull的做法是通過動態調度,整合實時環境數據和交通數據,提供優化路線,以減少司機在工作中遇到的阻力,提供直至“最后一公里”的服務。

    專家選美股

    Toast (TOST, $45)

    Shopify (SHOP, $1,691)

    PagSeguro Digital (PAGS, $30)

    Live Nation (LYV, $113)

    Yeti Holdings (YETI, $103)

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, $155)

    Nvidia (NVDA, $330)

    Angi (ANGI, $10)

    Roblox (RBLX, $135)

    Silergy (6415.TW, $5,250)

    MKS Instruments (MKSI, $163)

    Prices as of 11/19/21

    價值截止至2021年11月19日。股票名稱按提及順序排列。

    在勞動力短缺方面,美國已經出現了所謂的“大離職”浪潮,幾乎所有勞動者都有一種身心被掏空的感覺。創業界一向是以“雞血”、“996”和“007”聞名的。我想知道,你們是否發現有公司已經在著手解決這個問題了?

    費恩扎格:我們當然希望如此?,F在我發現很多公司都在努力解決“留人”的問題,從建立輔導平臺、提供健康服務到培訓和發展,再到構建企業文化和吸引員工參與。至于他們是否會成功,我還不知道。

    大約10到15年前的時候,每個人都想在那種公共區域提供啤酒的初創公司里工作。不過現在,我認為人們都想找一家真正把他們當人看、能夠提供360度全方位支持的公司?,F在已經有很多公司在開展心理健康日活動了。要想爭奪人才,光靠給的工資多是不行的?,F在人們關心的是,我的人生只有一次,我應該在哪里度過我寶貴的人生,同時還能保持一些完整的自我?

    你可能會說,這種心態的強化也與一些面向消費者的公司的創新有關,它們消除了交易中的阻力。

    宗丹:以互聯網、云計算和移動計算為代表的這波技術紅利已經持續20年了。很多人都在說:“下一個大機會是什么?”有時它恰恰是那些原本在采用新技術上很滯后的行業。金融業和金融服務業絕對就是這種行業之一。比如說,現在的大銀行仍然有大量的實體分支機構,這簡直令人難以置信。不過在疫情期間,我們終于看到金融領域的各種移動APP被消費者大量采用,比如Cash App、PayPal和Square等等,另外在金融服務業也有很多其他的移動應用。除此之外,企業在財務管理上,比如在票據支付、采購與會計和合同管理等方面,也開始大量應用這些金融APP。

    不過奇怪的是,很多這些東西在美國以外更先進。比如在中國,中國企業對微信和支付寶的應用要遠遠領先于美國企業。

    科赫:現在這個時刻,很有意思的是,我們有了很多顛覆性的技術,而且疫情還加快了這一進程。不過這種創新大多發生在零售領域。所以現在我們現在可以在網上一鍵下單,第二天快遞就能送到家門口,簡直超級方便,所有人都喜歡這一點。不過這些大的行業也容易受到更多監管,所以它們在很多方面都是更難被顛覆的。

    目前,全球互聯網公司的市值總額大約是14萬億美元,全球 金融服務公司的市值總額大約是16萬億美元,所以我認為機會是巨大的。 2021年,我們將開始看到一些即將被顛覆的公司已經受到了非常嚴重的影響。一些傳統支付公司的收益極不理想,原因就是受到了一些宗丹剛剛提到的APP的影響,比如Toast、Square和Shopify等等。它們提供的服務與傳統支付公司非常類似,但從很多方面看都要更好,而且他們的端對端服務的成本更低。

    世界上已經有其他國家在這方面走得比美國更遠了。對此我有兩點感悟:首先,美國的支付生態會變得更像中國,未來能把電商、社交和支付整合在一起的APP將會勝出。

    其次,事實證明,要想在這些市場取得成功,你需要有大量的當地知識。以巴西為例,巴西已經開始建立自己的支付生態系統了。 PagSeguro就是一個為小微商戶提供支付服務的公司。有些時候,新興市場國家之所以能在這些方面走在前列,是因為他們沒有傳統的基礎設施作為歷史包袱。不過我們也意識到,美國也會產生很多本土贏家。不過這個領域的全球大贏家未必還會是美國的“五巨頭”。

    新興市場是很多美國投資者嚴重忽視的地方。

    科赫:你說的對。大多數美國投資者對新興市場配置不足。新興市場約占全球證據市場的10%到15%,但美國投資者對新興市場的配資往往只有一兩個百分點,很多壓根沒有新興市場投資。但新興市場也有一些很好的公司和增長機會。

    通脹對你的看法有何改變?

    吉洛斯:2021年真是一場“完美風暴”。即便是在正常經濟復蘇的年份,通脹一般也會高于正常水平。但今年美國出臺了巨額的經濟刺激計劃,而且人們也在積極消費,市場對耐用消費品的需求比趨勢線高出了20%以上,我們以前從未在數據中看到這樣的情況。不管是電器、運動器材、空調,還是電腦和ipad,它們的需求都遠遠超出了正常水平。而現有的供應鏈不足支持需求在一夜之間暴漲20%。

    由供應鏈問題導致的通脹可能要持續到2023年,此外還有一些結構性因素也導致了美國的通脹高于疫情前5年的水平。首先是市場對大學以下學歷工人的需求正在上升,所以他們有了比以往更多的選擇——比如在亞馬遜送快遞,或者干一些靈活的零工。從人口上看,這一部分人口并未增加。所以從本質上看,我們需要讓工資在一段時間里快速上漲,以刺激那些目前沒有就業的人去就業。我們可能不會永遠保持4.5%的通脹率,但我認為在未來三到五年,你都會看到美國的通脹率要會比疫情前略高。

    這對投資者的策略有何影響?

    吉洛斯:我認為有一個資產類別很有吸引力,那就是杠桿貸款?,F在它在我的投資組合里占了10%左右,而一兩年前它大概只占1%。它們屬于浮動利率貸款,所以如果利率上漲,你就賺了。如果利率是穩定的,你也能拿到4%的回報。即便是利率下跌,你的損失也不會太大,況且目前并我不認為有大幅降息的可能。由于國債目前價位很高,所以投資級債券并不很具有吸引力。而杠桿貸款由于其波動性僅有證券市場的三分之一,所以它對那些風險意識很強且不喜歡高風險的投資者是很有意義的。

    我認為現在所有人都有一個共識,那就是隨著疫情日趨平穩,經濟將逐步走向正?;绕涫菑南M者的個人體驗來看。你在這方面看到了哪些機會?

    宗丹:我認為接下來一兩年,小盤股的表現應該會相當不錯。因為這些小盤股公司一般都是深耕國內的公司,比如餐飲、酒店、消費品零售和娛樂企業等等。他們一般會有更多的固定成本,并且需要更多的體力勞動者。但隨著經濟的復蘇和增長,一些受疫情影響最嚴重的行業將會有很積極的發展。

    近幾十年,比起物質需求,很多消費者更加重視的是“體驗”——比如旅行、聽音樂會等等。Live Nation就是一家我們非常喜歡的公司,它是全美最大的音樂會和現場演出推廣公司。它的業務是數字化無法取代的,就連亞馬遜也沒法跟它搶生意。如果你想見你最喜歡的音樂人,最好的方法當然是去看他現場演出。而且人們也喜歡看現場演出。另外,“千禧一代”已經成了目前的消費主力,他們是尤其注重體驗的一代,他們對工作、房子、車子、孩子并不那么看重,但卻很重視旅行、體驗、音樂會這些東西。

    我比較感興趣的另一個新興的、非物質的增長領域是元宇宙。我們發現,這一代年輕人是很相信元宇宙的,就像他們也能最早接受移動化和社交媒體一樣。我并不認為元宇宙會完全取代真實世界,但它會給很多年輕的“千禧一代”的生活提供某種補充。

    科赫:我想補充兩點。首先,全球有85%的千禧一代人生活在新興市場國家。所以這些生活體驗、旅行和戶外活動方面的趨勢應該是全球化的。其次,現在很多“千禧一代”和“Z世代”的年輕人都會把他們的生活體驗拍成照片,然后發布在社交媒體上,這樣就實現了體驗的物化——我本人是1980年出生的,所以我算“千禧一代”里的老年人,這些都是我的團隊告訴我的。也就是說,現在的年輕人不在網上“秀”奢侈品了,但他們可以“秀”生活體驗。我想強調的是好的戶外公司也有投資價值,特別是小盤股,不管是Yeti公司,還是一些做游泳池、房車或者游艇的公司——現在美國年輕人擁有的游艇比中老年人還多。

    專家選美股

    Toast (TOST, $45)

    Shopify (SHOP, $1,691)

    PagSeguro Digital (PAGS, $30)

    Live Nation (LYV, $113)

    Yeti Holdings (YETI, $103)

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, $155)

    Nvidia (NVDA, $330)

    Angi (ANGI, $10)

    Roblox (RBLX, $135)

    Silergy (6415.TW, $5,250)

    MKS Instruments (MKSI, $163)

    Prices as of 11/19/21

    股價截止至2021年11月19日

    宗丹:我們發現,很多消費品牌接受元宇宙的速度很快,他們已經開始在元宇宙里舉辦活動了。他們采用了游戲化的手段,營造了可視化的體驗,如果你采用Oculus這樣的VR頭盔,視覺效果顯然會更好。很多企業都押寶在這種3D化的、更有體驗感的環境。比如Gucci打造了一款虛擬手袋——它是虛擬的,不是真的手袋,但居然也能賣出好幾千美元。再比如非同質化代幣(NFT)。湯姆·布拉迪(著名橄欖球星)就推出了自己的NFT平臺,它本質上就是一張數字化的橄欖球卡片,跟以前的交易卡差不多。有些人跟我說,能想出這種概念的人肯定是瘋了。但我認為,幾千年前的某一天,有個人走到市場上,他不是用牛羊來換雞和玉米,而是拿出來了一種叫錢幣的東西。但是其他小販可能會以看傻子的眼神看著他說:“我不想要這個鐵片,把我的雞還給我?!?/p>

    當然,在我們這個時代,新事物達到50%普及率的時間已經大大縮短。以前,美國用了66年才讓50%的美國人用上電話,而電視卻只用了四分之一的時間就達到了50%的普及率。臉書的普及率更是不到4年就達到了50%。新技術的快速應用是我們這個時代的特點之一,也是所有投資者都應該關注的一個現象。在元宇宙領域,我目前還沒有特別推薦的投資對象,但我認有一些公司是值得關注的,比如Roblox和Unity。當然,現在已經更名為Meta的臉書也很值得關注。另外我們認為,一些傳統公司也很可能從元宇宙中獲益。比方說,元宇宙所需的計算力是驚人的,所以就需要像AMD和英偉達這樣的半導體公司來驅動它。

    基思:關于千禧一代,我再補充一點,從年齡上看,千禧一代馬上即將進入收入高峰期,他們最大的一筆開銷就是房子——不管是買房、還房貸還是翻修房子。這樣的話,像Angi這樣的公司就會從中受益。Angi是一家主流的線上房屋服務平臺,它瞄準的是一個9000億美元的目標市場。千禧一代跟我們不一樣,他們更喜歡在網上找服務承包商,而我們這一代人則喜歡通過黃頁或者其他途徑。

    費恩扎格:我并沒有花太多時間思考過千禧一代的問題,我主要關注的是人口的兩個邊緣,首先是“嬰兒潮”一代的老年人,以及相關的“養老經濟”及技術。但更重要的是“Z世代”的年輕人,他們是第一代的“數字原住民”,他們對生活的態度和我們完全不同,敢于質疑一切,而且他們彼此之間的關系也跟我們這一代有很大的不同。我在虛擬幣和元宇宙這兩種前沿技術上投資的不多,但我的確認為它們是一種趨勢。目前,它們看起來有賭博和投機的意味——如果你沒有做好賠錢的準備,就不要打算投資這一類的東西。但它還是很值得了解的。

    我投資的一家公司就在這個領域里做了一些很有趣的事,這家公司叫Makara。 Makara所做的事就是創建一個投資籃子。本質上它們是由虛擬幣構成的ETF基金,散戶投資者可以買入這些基金進行投資。投資籃子里的資產被它以一種我們這些上了年紀的千禧一代人和X世代人可以理解的方式包裝了起來,這樣一來,我們就不用擔心油價,不用管OpenSea(一個虛擬幣交易平臺)是干什么的,也不用管為什么我們要買那些奇奇怪怪的動物幣。

    科赫:在這個行業里,我們經常會談論多元化的問題——這是一個非常重要的問題。我們的團隊有一半的投資是由女性經理管理的,這是一件很值得驕傲的事。我們經常會談到性別和種族的問題,但除此之外,你自己投資團隊也要做到人才的多元化。否則你甚至都不知道為什么有人會在元宇宙里買一些莫名其妙的東西,這時候你就需要年輕人幫你理解這些。

    新聞界有一條顛撲不破的真理:你的孩子在討論什么事,你就應該關注什么事。我認為這一點對投資者也是一樣的。

    我想讓大家回答最后一個問題:你們認為明年最大的風險和機遇在哪里?

    吉洛斯:2019年,標普500的每股收益是164美元,今年有望達到205甚至207美元,已經遠高于平均趨勢。以中值計算,大盤股的估值也已接近25年來的最高點,所以收益增長即將放緩。通常來說,這對市場并不是一個好信號。如果總體增長環境放緩了,那么那些一向穩定增長的公司就會重新受到青睞。

    基思:我們認為2022年最大的風險是勞動力短缺,這給企業創新和增長帶來了更大的挑戰。2020年4月份以來,美國的非農就業人口已經增長了1700萬人,但仍然比疫情前低了500萬人。因此,企業要想吸引和保留人才,就要提供一個安全、包容的環境。那些擁有強烈的宗旨使命感的企業將在吸引人才上具備很強的競爭優勢。

    宗丹:我認為最大的機遇還是在創新型、增長型的公司身上。我們還處在一個疫情加劇、加速的時期,而這也加快了一些行業和企業的衰退速度。所以機會就會集中在這些引領趨勢的公司身上。

    在風險方面,我最擔心的就是通脹。在很長一段時間里,美國經濟增長的主要受益者是白領工人,而不是藍領工人?,F在我們看到,藍領工人的待遇有所上升。我認為這對社會是有好處的,藍領工人的高工資對現實生活是十分必要的,但時間一長就容易轉化成更高的通脹。

    其次是商品通脹。 現在的油價為83美元。金融危機以來,我們還沒有見過83美元的油價,造成這種現象的主要原因是中國的崛起?,F在有一個有趣的現象,我本人是一個環保主義者,我歡迎能源行業向風能、太陽能等可再生能源轉型。但由于油氣行業資本支出的減少,再考慮到可再生能源的未來前景,接下來幾年,油氣價格可能會一直保持在高位。如果你想讓市場倒逼轉型,這或許是最好的方法,但中間也會有一段很不愉快的過渡時期。

    科赫:我們擔心的是供應鏈的問題會持續到2022年,特別是芯片短缺的問題?,F在芯片從訂購到交貨需要長達22周的時間,這是非常滯后的。芯片短缺是一個非常重要的問題,因為我們今天談到的很多東西都需要技術上的創新,而芯片是所有這些技術的基礎。

    這就引出了我的第二點,那就是我們認為2022年的一個重大機遇在于構建供應鏈的彈性。我們喜歡那些在這方面考慮得比較周全的公司。目前來看,中國和美國都會在本土市場上對芯片設計和制造進行大規模的投資,所以我們很看好半導體設備制造商,比如亞洲的硅力杰、美國的MKS Instruments等。

    萊斯利,你對風險和機遇有何看法?

    費恩扎格:作為做風投的人,我一般不以一年而非幾十年為單位來考慮機遇和風險。不過我認為很多風險同時也是機遇,就像一枚硬幣的兩面。我想說的一點是,現在越來越多的錢進入了創業領域,因為創業從沒有像現在這么容易過。很多投資人發現,風投和初創的成果來得越來越大、越來越快。這當然是一個機遇。

    至于挑戰,初創公司并不是一個你可以非常高效地投入大量資本的地方。有時候情況甚至恰恰相反,你向初創公司投得錢越多,他們越學不會如何建立實際業務,以及如何在成長過程中有效利用資金,這最終對這些公司是不利的。

    更大的機遇在于讓更多人去工作,去參與到投資和創造財富的巨大浪潮中來。在疫情以前,世界經濟論壇曾指出,女性可能還需要160年的時間才能在經濟上與男性平等。而疫情爆發以后,這個時間變成了300年左右。很多女性不再工作了,她們沒有參與到經濟中來,她們也沒有進行投資,這種現象是全球性的。即便在我們這個行業,全世界只有不到1%的資產是由女性管理的。

    我將以積極的觀點結束發言——另一方面,現在創富、創業的周期大大加快,人們參與經濟和創造財富的方式大大增加,這在以前是根本無法做到的。有些新模式為投資經濟帶來了新人、新思維和新資本,我很樂見這一切所帶來的機會。

    這是很好的結束語。感謝你們的時間、觀點和專業知識。

    三個興奮點和三個擔憂點

    三個興奮點

    小盤股

    平均要比標普500的大公司股便宜得多,隨著消費的復蘇,很多小盤股公司將獲益,其中不乏一些快速增長的技術創新者。

    金融科技,永遠的神

    像Toast、Square和PayPal這樣的公司仍處于金融服務改革的早期階段。

    福利更好的公司

    初創公司和上市公司更加關注員工的福祉——這樣可以降低人才流失率,從而更好地回報股東。

    三個擔憂點

    通脹

    供應鏈問題應該很快就會緩解,但勞動力短缺問題可能不會很快得到解決,這將引起工資通脹。(好的一面是,這有利于解決收入差距的問題。)

    芯片短缺

    芯片訂貨時間過長,達到創紀錄的水平,可能會減緩很多企業的升級和創新速度。

    綠色之痛

    化石能源向可再生能源的轉型具有極大的經濟意義,但會提高企業和消費者的短期成本。(財富中文網)

    本文另一版本刊發在2021年12月/ 2022年1月刊的《財富》雜志上,題為《投資者圓桌會議:精明投資走出危機模式》。

    譯者:樸成奎

    During the depths of the pandemic, many of us worried about scarcity: What if a battered, disrupted economy left us with too little? In contrast, when the panelists on our annual investor roundtable gathered to talk about 2022, in the context of a roaring U.S. recovery, many were grappling with the challenges of too much. Too much demand for consumer goods, tangling supply chains and stoking inflation; too much money sloshing around in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street, making startups and stocks look overvalued; and on a far more sober note, too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, posing difficult choices about sustainability for CEOs, investors, and consumers alike. No surprise, then, that each of our experts is on the hunt for companies that have the business models and the technology to adapt to a fast-changing world.

    Joining us on this year’s panel were Dan Chung, the CEO, chief investment officer, and portfolio manager at Fred Alger Management; Leslie Feinzaig, the founder and managing director at venture capital firm Graham & Walker; David Giroux, chief investment officer for equity and multi-asset at T. Rowe Price and author of the new book Capital Allocation: Principles, Strategies, and Processes for Creating Long-Term Shareholder Value; Lori Keith, director of research and portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments; and Katie Koch, cohead of fundamental equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. What follows are edited excerpts from our conversation; read more at Fortune.com.

    Fortune: We’ve been through this incredible rebound year, but now we’re starting to see new headwinds, whether it’s inflation, labor and supply-chain problems, or the end of government stimulus. Is 2022 a year when you see equities in general cooling off?

    Katie Koch: Big picture, we think of 2022 as a year of transitioning from recovery to more resilience, where returns will be more muted. And we’re going to have to be highly selective against that backdrop. So in terms of resilience, areas where we’re looking to invest would include the reshoring of supply chains, which we all have discovered this year need to be more resilient; digitalization of businesses; and finally, investing in the transition to a more sustainable planet.

    Early in the pandemic, the benefits of digitalization seemed to flow mostly to Big Tech. Are we seeing some of that business flow to lesser-known names or smaller companies?

    Dan Chung: The massive acceleration in the adoption of technology, in some ways, was a forced experiment for a lot of stakeholders. But the experience, I think, by and large has been very positive—including in some much older industries. So for example, among restaurants, the most hard-hit industry other than airlines, many pivoted to delivery and online ordering. And the results are really quite amazing. For many of them, they’re seeing that even as we reopen, their delivery efforts are actually holding up quite a bit better; they’re above the levels where they were before COVID.

    Leslie Feinzaig: Building on that point, I think that in times of great disruption comes great opportunity. And we’ve had a major disruption in how we live and work and plan to do everything, and behavior hasn’t settled into what the new normal will be. A lot of VCs were very cautious about the education industry before the pandemic. And now as we realize that there are so many different ways of delivering education, we’re starting to see record investing. Personally, I’m invested in a couple of companies in the space. One is LegUp, which helps parents connect with early childhood education suppliers, and the other is Stack Education, which is delivering upskilling and rescaling programs through community colleges in the middle of America.

    I’m also seeing a lot of innovation around models for delivering health care differently. Now that insurance covers a lot more telehealth, it’s a lot more widely acceptable. Now you can just book an appointment and get on with your day. All of the extra thoughtfulness that people have had, for better or worse, around personal health through the pandemic is creating all of these opportunities for spaces that venture capital has never touched before. I don’t think we’d be seeing this much traction if it weren’t for the great disruption of our lives over the past couple of years.

    Koch: That disruption in venture extends into the public markets too. And we expect some of the big winners in tech next year and beyond actually to be outside of those dominant platforms that are listed in the U.S.

    If you think about the largest companies in the world by market cap 20 years ago and compare that to today, there’s only one company that’s still on that list, which is Microsoft. Those other nine companies since then have lost a cumulative $235 billion of market cap. And so this speaks to the importance of finding the next generation of companies.

    We think that enterprise spending on tech could be up 4% next year, which would be the highest projected growth rate in 10 years. And some areas that we’re looking at include cybersecurity, as people move workloads from the edge of the network to the cloud. Palo Alto Networks would be a company that’s going to be at the leading edge of that. In software, HubSpot, one that we like, is helping to basically digitalize aspects of small and midsize businesses in the U.S.

    There’s a big technological side as well to climate-change–related thinking and making companies’ operations greener.

    Lori Keith: Absolutely. One company I’d highlight that is helping companies reduce their water use is Roper Technologies. They’re a diversified technology company that develops software-engineered products for a variety of niche markets. But they’ve been providing very innovative water pumps that allow their customers to use significantly less water and to monitor that water quality.

    Another, maybe less obvious, candidate with this theme is Guidewire Software. Certainly, it also plays into the digitalization trend that Katie and Dan have spoken on. The physical risk of climate change is driving really dramatic costs in property insurance. Guidewire’s software and data analytics are helping its customers to manage these risks, handling these mission-critical climate-change issues.

    David Giroux: If you think about utilities, probably over the next 20 years, there’s going to be no sector that’s going to play a bigger part in essentially reducing greenhouse gases. What you’re seeing the utilities do today is basically replace coal and less-efficient natural-gas plants with wind and solar. But the issue is what happens when you go from baseload generation that’s very predictable, like coal, like nuclear, like natural gas, to generation with wind and solar, which is more variable. To make this clean-energy economy work, we estimate you may need as much as $400 billion spent on new transmission projects in this country by 2040.

    A good chunk of that going to be in the Midwest. That’s where the wind resources are the strongest, where you don’t have the same siting issues as you have on the East and West coasts. So the Midwest utilities that have a lot of exposure to transmission are really well positioned to benefit for the next 20 years. Companies like Ameren, Exelon, AEP, and Xcel would all be big beneficiaries. And the Midwest tends to have far less of the severe weather that impacts these utilities’ physical plants.

    Extreme weather events have also been disrupting supply chains this year. Which industries are coping with that best?

    Keith: There’s two issues around the supply chain: the actual supply chain and labor shortages. We’re seeing that companies that are investing in their workforce, building up strong, inclusive workplaces around safety, diversity, health, and wellness, have been much better equipped to not only manage, but thrive. Cboe, which is one of the largest global exchange holding companies, has a level of about 5% voluntary turnover, which is among the lowest of its peers. The programs it’s offering in-house—leadership development programs, employee wellness programs, women’s initiatives, a group of 50-plus diverse associates—are generating a very high level of engagement and minimizing that turnover, which allows them to continue to grow, faster.

    Another company that I think is really well positioned is Trumbull. They’re primarily focused on cloud-based software solutions for construction and agricultural transportation. Within the transportation sector, for instance, truck driver shortages are the No. 1 issue for carriers right now. What Trumbull does is remove that friction from drivers’ jobs with dynamic scheduling, optimized routing that incorporates real-time, environmental data, traffic data, to provide a more efficient route, all the way down to that very last mile.

    Picks from the experts

    Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $530)

    HubSpot (HUBS, $822)

    Roper Technologies (ROP, $498)

    Guidewire Software (GWRE, $123)

    Ameren (AEE, $85)

    Exelon (EXC, $54)

    American Electric Power Company (AEP, $83)

    Xcel Energy (XEL, $65)

    Cboe Global Markets (CBOE, $129)

    PayPal (PYPL, $194)

    Square (SQ, $225)

    Prices as of 11/19/21. Stocks appear in the order mentioned

    On the labor shortage front, we’re in the middle of what people have been calling the Great Resignation, with workers feeling burned out. Leslie, the startup space is a notoriously hard-charging, work-all-hours universe. I’m wondering, are you seeing companies that are addressing this?

    Feinzaig: I mean, you certainly hope so after the couple years that we’ve had. I’m seeing a huge number of companies trying to solve the future of work for bigger corporations, everything from mentoring platforms, health services, coaching, development, and trying to sell into the enterprise and create engagement across employees. Are they gonna succeed? I don’t know.

    Ten, 15 years ago, everybody wanted to work at a startup that served beer in the lobby. I think these days, people are looking for a company that can think about them as a human being and provide that 360-degree support. We’re seeing a ton of companies doing companywide mental health days. To compete for talent, it’s no longer just about who pays the most money. It’s about, Where can I spend my one, precious life and have some wholeness?

    You could argue that mindset is also reinforced by some of the innovations in consumer-facing companies, taking the friction out of transactions.

    Chung: After 20 years of internet and technology and cloud and mobile computing, a lot of people say, “Well, what is the next big opportunity?” Sometimes it’s in industries that have been slow to adapt and change to meet consumers. Finance and financial services is definitely one of these. I mean, it’s still stunning how many physical branches there are for some of our major banks. But we finally did see during COVID massive adoption of all kinds of mobile apps for consumers in the financial sector. Cash App, PayPal, Square, and many others in financial services. And also for businesses, management of their financial processes—bill payment, purchasing and accounting, contract management.

    Oddly enough, many of these things are more advanced in terms of digitalization outside the U.S., for example in China, where WeChat Pay and Ant Financial among Chinese companies are far ahead in their adoption compared to the U.S.

    Koch: What’s really interesting about this moment, and what COVID has helped accelerate, is that we’ve had a lot of disruption of technology. But most of it happened in the retail space. And so we got these, you know, cardboard boxes that come overnight to our house. And it’s superconvenient. And everybody loves that. Now we’re at the precipice of technology being pointed at these very large sectors that tend to be more regulated. So they were in a lot of ways harder to disrupt.

    There is currently $14 trillion of market cap globally in internet companies. And there’s $16 trillion of market cap in financial services companies. So the opportunity, I think, is enormous. In 2021, we’re starting to see some of those companies that were ripe for disruption get very, very hurt. Those old-line payments companies reported very muted earnings, because they’re getting disrupted by some of the companies that Dan was speaking to, whether it’s Toast or Square or Shopify, which are providing very similar service, and in a lot of ways a better service, at a lower cost with end-to-end solutions.

    There are other parts of the world that are farther along on this journey. There’s two takeaways for me from that. The first is that you’re going to see the U.S. payment space look more like China. So it’s probably going to coalesce around e-commerce, social media and payments, and apps that can wrap those three things together are positioned to win.

    Second, it turns out that you do need to have a lot of local knowledge to be successful in these markets. Take Brazil as an example. They’re starting to build out their very own payment ecosystem. So I would put forward PagSeguro as an example of a company that’s providing payments to micro-merchants. In some ways emerging markets are ahead because they didn’t have the legacy infrastructure. But we’re also realizing that we’re going to have a lot of local winners. It is not necessarily going to be those five Big Tech platforms that own the whole world in this space.

    And emerging markets are an arena where a lot of American investors are notoriously underinvested.

    Koch: You’re very right. Most U.S. investors are under-allocated to the rest of the world into emerging markets, specifically, which is somewhere between 10% to 15% of global equity market cap, but usually only a couple percent of people’s equity portfolio in the U.S., if they have it at all. And there are some fantastic companies, great growth opportunities.

    How is inflation changing your thinking right now?

    Giroux: We need to keep in mind that 2021 is really the perfect storm. Just through normal recovery, we were always gonna see above normal inflation this year. But we also had massive stimulus, and people are spending that. Demand for consumer durables is up in many cases more than 20% above the trend line. We really have never seen anything like it in the data before. You know, appliances, exercise equipment, air conditioning, computers, iPads—way above normalized demand. And the supply chain was just not built to support a 20% spike in demand overnight.

    This supply-chain, cyclically driven inflation will probably go away going to 2023. But there are some structural things that will probably result in inflation being higher than it was in the five years prior to COVID. The issue comes down to the worker who doesn’t have a college education. Demand for those workers is going up. And they have more options than ever, whether it be Amazon or whether it be gig jobs that offer tremendous flexibility. Demographically that population is really not growing. So essentially, we need to have wages rise fast enough over time to drive people who are not working and incentivize them to work. We’re probably not going to have 4.5% inflation forever, but I think for next three to five years, you could see inflation be moderately higher than we saw pre-pandemic.

    How is that shaping investor strategy?

    Giroux: One of the asset classes that I think about being really attractive is leveraged loans. It is around 10% of my portfolio today. It was 1% of the portfolio a couple years ago. These are floating-rate loans, so if rates rise, you benefit from that. If rates are stable, you get a 4% return. And if rates drop, which I don’t think they’re going drop dramatically from right here, you’re probably not going to be hurt that much at all. Treasuries are very expensive right now. Investment-grade bonds don’t look that attractive. And so leveraged loans, earning 4% with one-third the volatility of the equity market—for most risk-averse, risk-aware investors, that makes a lot of sense.

    I think one assumption all of us share is a confidence that more of the economy is headed toward normal, after COVID—especially consumer experiences happening in person. What kind of opportunities are you seeing in that world?

    Chung: I think small-cap equities, in particular, are going to perform quite nicely in the next year to two years, because typically, small-cap companies are more domestic: a lot of restaurants, hotels, consumer retail, and entertainment. Their business often has more fixed costs and more physical labor. But as the economy unwinds and improves, some of what was the most negatively impacted by COVID will become a positive story.

    A lot of consumers for decades have been replacing demand for material things and valuing more “experiences”—things like travel or concerts. Live Nation is a company that we like a lot, the largest concert and live events promoter. This is an Amazon-proof, brick-and-mortar business not subject to digitalization. If you want to go see your favorite musician, nothing replaces seeing them live. And people do like being part of an audience, a crowd. But you also have the rise of the millennials. This is the most experiential-based, youthful demographic group we’ve ever had. They are not as focused on, you know, job, home, car, having kids; they’re much more focused on travel, experiences, concerts.

    Another emerging, nonmaterial growth trend I’m interested in is the metaverse. We are finding that this generation is really adopting that, just like they adopted mobile first, and then social media first. I don’t think it’s going to replace real-world experiences, but it’s a complement to the lives of many, many of the younger millennials.

    Koch: Two things I would add to that: First, 85% of the world’s millennials live in emerging markets. So these trends around live experiences, travel, the great outdoors, we try to own globally. The other point I would make is that social media has enabled millennial and Gen Z consumers—and I was born in 1980, so I’m a geriatric millennial, I’m told by my team—to take pictures of experiences that they’re having and post them to social media and that in a way, it transforms an experience into a thing. So instead of showing off luxury goods, they can take experiences and do the same thing. I also want to emphasize this idea of being in the great outdoors. There’s a lot of ways to access that in small-cap, whether it’s Yeti, whether it’s pool companies, whether it’s owning the RV companies, or boats—because boat ownership is now higher among millennials and younger generations.

    Picks from the experts

    Toast (TOST, $45)

    Shopify (SHOP, $1,691)

    PagSeguro Digital (PAGS, $30)

    Live Nation (LYV, $113)

    Yeti Holdings (YETI, $103)

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, $155)

    Nvidia (NVDA, $330)

    Angi (ANGI, $10)

    Roblox (RBLX, $135)

    Silergy (6415.TW, $5,250)

    MKS Instruments (MKSI, $163)

    Prices as of 11/19/21

    Chung: We’re seeing a rapid adoption by consumer brands hosting events in the metaverse. They are gamifying, creating environments that can be visually experienced, obviously better visually experienced if you use something like an Oculus, a VR headset. A lot of the leaders are going to transfer what they’ve been doing on social media into this more three-dimensional, more experiential environment. Gucci created a one-of-a-kind digital bag—digital, not a real bag. And they managed to sell it for thousands of dollars. Or look at non-fungible tokens, NFTs. Tom Brady, for example, has got an NFT; it’s basically a digital football card, like a trading card of old. Some people have told me that these ideas are crazy. And I say, Well, just remember one day thousands of years ago, somebody showed up at the marketplace. And instead of bringing sheep and pigs to trade for chickens and corn, they brought something called a coin. And probably the other vendors looked at them and said, “I don’t want that piece of metal. Where’s my chicken?”

    Certainly, the experience of the adoption of new things in our age is that the time to 50% penetration has rapidly accelerated, consistently over many, many decades. It took 66 years to get 50% of America with a telephone. It took a quarter of that time to get TVs to 50%, and Facebook got adopted by 50% in probably like less than four years. We’re just seeing rapid, rapid adoption, and that is a phenomenon of our times that I think all investors need to be focused on. So when we think of the metaverse, I don’t have any particular investments to recommend, but I can think of some companies to watch like Roblox and Unity. And of course, Facebook itself, now called Meta, is one to watch. But we do think one interesting outcome is going to be the benefit to some traditional companies. So for example, to power the metaverse the amount of computing power needed is going to be amazing. So there are companies like AMD and Nvidia: Their semiconductors, they’re going to be needed to power this stuff.

    Keith: One further point on the millennials: They’re approaching their peak earning years. And among their biggest purchases are going to be homes—financing homes, but also investing in their homes, repairing their homes. One beneficiary would be a company like Angi. Angi is the dominant platform provider of online home services and contracting services. It’s a $900 billion market that they operate across. And millennials are really going to be much more inclined to identify contractors online versus historically what we all did, pulling something out of the Yellow Pages or some other route.

    Feinzaig: It’s funny: I haven’t spent much time thinking about millennials. I think a lot about the two edges of the population. One is baby boomers, and the caring economy and how to create technologies that can be for that population. But more important is Gen Z. These are, you know, the first digital natives—a completely different attitude to life, question everything you know—and they take a very different approach to, really, everything about how they relate to one another. So I’m not a huge investor in crypto and metaverse, those edge technologies and edge behaviors, but I do think that they are coming. And right now it looks a lot like play money, it looks very speculative—you certainly should not be investing anything that you’re not prepared to lose—but it is worth learning.

    I have an investment in a company that is doing something really interesting in that space, called Makara. And what Makara does is create investment baskets: Essentially, they’re ETFs made up of cryptocurrencies that the retail investor can then go in as investments. It’s packaging all of this up in a way that we geriatric millennials and Gen Xers can understand and get behind, and not have to be quite so worried about gas fees, or what’s OpenSea, and why should I buy a GIF of an animal that looks really weird.

    Koch: We talk about diversity a lot in this industry—it’s very, very important. We’re proud on our team that half the assets are run by portfolio managers that happen to be women. We talk a lot around gender and race, and we should, but the other thing that is also important is having demographic diversity on your own investing team. When you’re trying to figure out why someone wants to buy a burrito from Chipotle through Roblox in the metaverse, you need young people on the team to help you understand that.

    There’s a truism in journalism that if your kids are talking about it, it’s a story you should pay more attention to. I think that’s true for investors as well.

    I want to give everyone a chance to answer one last question: Where do you see the greatest risks and the greatest opportunities in the year ahead?

    Giroux: The S&P 500 did $164 per share in earnings in 2019; we’re going to do $205, $207 this year. We’re well above trend earnings growth. Valuations are near 25-year highs in large-cap equities on a median basis, and earnings growth is going to slow. Usually that’s not a great combination for the market. If you’re going from an environment where growth is plentiful to a place where growth is more muted, companies that are more consistent growers will probably go back in favor.

    Keith: What we see as the “Look out!” biggest risk for earnings in 2022 is the shortage of labor, which makes it much more challenging for companies to innovate and ultimately grow. Nonfarm payrolls have risen by 17 million since the trough of April 2020, but they’re still down 5 million from the pre-pandemic level. So providing a safe, inclusive, great workplace, I think that’s table stakes today for companies to be able to attract and motivate and retain their talent base. And companies that have a really strong corporate purpose, a mission, are going to be a very significant competitive advantage in attracting and engaging their employees.

    Chung: The greatest opportunities I continue to see are in innovative growth companies. I think we’re in a period that COVID accentuated and accelerated, and for some companies and industries accelerated their decline. So the opportunities are around focusing on the companies leading those trends.

    On the risk side, my greatest concern for the markets is inflation. For a long time, growth in the U.S. has benefited white-collar labor, but not blue-collar laborers. Now we’re seeing blue-collar [workers] gain some of that back. And I think that’s good for our society, but higher wages at the blue-collar jobs that are so necessary for actual real life do tend to translate into higher inflation over time.

    And then there’s commodity inflation. Oil is at $83. We haven’t seen $83 since before the Great Financial Crisis, and that was driven by the rise of China. Today we have an interesting phenomenon. And it’s difficult for me because I am an environmentalist. I welcome the transition to renewables and sustainable wind and solar and others. But we could have a difficult period where because of disciplined, reduced capital spending in the oil and gas industries, and the future outlook for renewables, we could see sustained very high oil and natural-gas prices for years. If you want the markets to force the transition to renewables, that could be the best way for it to happen. But there could be a very unpleasant middle period there.

    Koch: We are worried about supply-chain constraints lasting well into 2022. And an area that we have a particular focus on would be the chip famine that we’re all facing. Right now, we have a record high 22-week lead time between when a chip is ordered and when it is delivered. That is a very bad, bad lag. And it’s very relevant because a lot of what we’ve talked about today is the need for more technological disruption, innovation. Chips are foundational to all of that technology.

    That leads me to my second point, which is, we continue to think a major opportunity in 2022 and beyond lies in building supply-chain resiliency. We like the companies that have already been thoughtful about that. For the moment, we are expecting both China and the U.S. to make massive investments in being able to design but also fab their chips in those home markets. And so we love semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Silergy would be an example of one in Asia, and MKS Instruments would be an example in the U.S.

    Leslie, any last thoughts on risks and opportunities?

    Feinzaig: As a VC, it’s hard for me to think about opportunities and risks in one-year chunks, rather than in decades. But most of the risks I see are the same as the opportunities; it’s two sides of the same coin. One thing I would say is, more and more money is coming into the startup space, because it has never been easier to start a company; it has never been easier to scale a company. A lot of investors are starting to see that the outcomes in venture and the outcomes in early stage are getting bigger, and they’re happening faster, and there’s more of them to be had. So that’s certainly an opportunity.

    Now the challenge is that early stage is not a place where you can very efficiently invest large amounts of capital. In fact, if the opposite happens, like the more money thrown at early-stage companies, the less they learn how to build substantial businesses and be efficient with their capital as they grow, and that ends up being bad for the company.

    We would also be remiss to not talk about the giant need and opportunity to bring more people to work, and to bring more people into the tide of investing and wealth creation. Before the pandemic, the World Economic Forum had said that it was going to take something like 160 years for women to reach economic gender parity [with men]. And after the pandemic, it’s almost 300 years. So many women are no longer working; they’re not participating; they’re not investing globally. Even in our profession, less than 1% of all assets worldwide are managed by women.

    But the flip side of that is—I’m going to end on a positive note—that same increasingly fast cycle of wealth generation, of company creation, of growth creates huge opportunities for people to participate and build wealth in ways that were really kind of inaccessible to masses before. There are really interesting models out there that are bringing more new people, more new thinking, more new capital into the investing economy, and I’m super excited to see what that brings.

    That’s a great note to end on. Thank you all so much for your time, your insight, and your expertise.?

    3 things to get excited about, and 3 to worry about

    Get excited about:

    Small-cap stocks

    They’re far cheaper, on average, than the S&P 500’s giants; many are poised to benefit from a consumer recovery; and their ranks include fast-growing tech innovators.

    Fintech forever

    Companies like Toast, Square, and PayPal are still in the early innings of their battle to shake up financial services.

    Kinder companies

    Startups and public companies are paying more attention to their employees’ well-being—which can pay off for shareholders by reducing turnover.

    Worry about:

    Inflation

    Supply-chain bottlenecks should ease soon, but labor shortages probably won’t, and that will stoke wage inflation. (On the bright side, it could ease income inequality.)

    Chip shortages

    Record-high wait times for semiconductors could slow down many companies’ efforts to upgrade and innovate.

    Green pain

    The transition from fossil fuels to renewables is an economic imperative, but its short-term costs could bite companies and consumers alike.

    A version of this article appears in the December 2021/January 2022 issue of Fortune with the headline, "Investor Roundtable: The smart money moves beyond crisis mode."

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